Services of Adequacy Assessment of Lithuanian Electric Power System for 2026-2030

This analysis aims at checking the system adequacy determining the level of the risk of achieving a situation in which total consumption in Lithuania is not met. The level of this risk is determined on the basis of the number of hours during the year in which part of the consumption is not satisfied, and the system is considered adequate if the number of these hours is smaller than the predefined marginal number (8h/year in case of Lithuania).

Adequacy analysis is carried out with respect to all market restrictions on the operation of the power system and considering a large number of possible situations (several hundreds) with full Monte Carlo approach following the latest ENTSO-E methodology (ERAA2021). Main results of these analyses are indicators of level of risk of not satisfying the total consumption of the system, expressed through the probabilistic adequacy indicators:

• LOLE (Loss Of Load Expectation) (h / yr) - number of hours in which consumption is not met
• ENS (Energy Not Supplied) (MWh) - total energy consumption that is not met

When LOLE criterion is not met, the measures to ensure missing capacities are identified and economic assessment of the costs-benefits of the proposed measures for Lithuania and the impact on the neighbouring Member States (PL, SE, EE, LV) are determined. On the top of this, compatibility of the proposed measures implementation with the European Union law on state aid mechanisms is assessed.

Software tool used for the analyses is Antares.

Type of services provided:

• Development of European electricity market model in Antares
• Tuning of the Antares model to match Scenarios planned for Lithuania
• Analyses of adequacy status
• Assessment of possible measures to ensure required level of adequacy with cost-benefit assessment for Lithuania and Neighboring EU Member States
• Assessment of the compatibility of the proposed measures with European Union law on state aid mechanisms